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Are You Catching a Falling Knife with Whole Foods?

Written by Tracey

May 15, 2008 06:00 AM

Whole Foods (WFMI) shares were crushed in yesterday’s trading, finishing down 14% after a disappointing first-quarter earnings report which showed same store sales slowing and overall growth slowing.

That is the kiss of death for a “growth” stock- which Whole Foods used to be. From Marketwatch:

For its fiscal year 2008, which ends in September, Whole Foods backed its comparable-store sales forecast calling for growth between 7.5% and 9.5%.

“We believe management’s reiteration of same store sales guidance is highly optimistic,” wrote Bear Stearns analyst Robert Summers, who rates the stock underperform, the equivalent of a sell. “This stock, in our opinion, remains well on the path to becoming a value stock and encourage investors not to catch a falling knife.”

Whole Foods is trading at new 52 week lows. It might even be multi-year lows.

Is it really “catching a falling knife”?

I’m a value investor, at heart, so the …

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Chemical Prices Tell the Inflation Story: It Will Be Massive

Written by Tracey

May 14, 2008 08:46 AM

I recently discussed what is happening in the chemical market with two very capable people in that industry: my brothers.

Both have worked for a small chemical distribution company in the Chicago suburbs for over a decade.

They are seeing price increases that are beyond even the “norm”. It is simply beyond the beyond.

As my older brother, Tim, told me: “The markets are ready to crack” under the price pressures.

Every month this year has seen price increases on a host of products. And that is continuing into June. There are three different scenarios pushing up chemical prices.

1. The chemical is actually a crude derivative, such as toluene, which is made directly from crude, and is therefore tied to the price of crude. As crude goes up, so does the price of toluene and the other crude derivative products.

2. Or the chemical needs natural gas in order to get to the …

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Why P/Es Matter When Buying Stocks

Written by Tracey

May 13, 2008 08:32 AM

Google has a P/E (price to earnings) of 41.

Research in Motion (RIMM) has a P/E of 60.

MasterCard (MA) has a P/E of 29.

What do these stocks have in common? They are all expensive. But the shares have taken off and investors keep buying. The usual investor belief is that they’re “growing” so that growth justifies the expensive price.

But does it?

Mark Hulbert, a columnist with Marketwatch.com, had an interesting article the other day about Pfizer. You remember Pfizer- one of the largest drug companies in the world. If you bought Pfizer in 1990, you would have been very well off (i.e. “rich”) by 2000.

But after 2000? Not so much. In fact, the stock has been “dead” for the last 8 years. Even with a nearly 5% average dividend over this time period, all that the stock has done has gone down. In May 1998, PFE …

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Copper Thefts Picking Up: Chicago Thieves Getting Brazen

Written by Tracey

May 12, 2008 08:56 AM

I’ve talked about the copper thefts in the past. Now, there is a wave of thefts appearing in Chicago.

I’m not surprised. There are hundreds of abandoned homes on the south side of the city- all with some form of copper. The Mayor has proposed legislation that would require foreclosed properties to be boarded up with steel plates to protect the property.

You can forget about any copper gutters still being around. Same with the air conditioning units.

But even in homes that aren’t foreclosed, there are reports nearly weekly of burglaries where the appliances and the air conditioning unit is stolen. You can hear the thieves now: “No, don’t take that laptop. Grab the washing machine.”

How lucrative is it?

On the northside of the city, in Lakeview, a few “smart” thieves have been dressing up in “official looking” uniforms, driving a van, and stealing copper wire in the City’s streetlights. What they do …

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