The Donald Indicator is Alive and Well

The Wall Street Journal has an article today titled, “Stalled Condo Projects Infuriate Buyers, Tarnish Trump’s Name“.

If you’ll recall, last March I wrote that Donald Trump and all of his Trump Towers were an indicator that the real estate market was going to bust in that city. Hence, if there is a Trump Tower Omaha, then the Omaha condo market was in for a rough ride.

I hate it when I’m right. (Yes, I’m gloating.) The Wall Street Journal is only figuring it out now. Where the Donald built his highrises, things are not so well in the market.

In the condo market, some of Mr. Trump’s projects may be suffering in part from brand dilution. One person familiar with the Fort Lauderdale project Trump Las Olas said it was shelved partly because Mr. Trump has lent his name to two other projects nearby.

Mr. Trump denies there was any brand dilution, though he says Trump Las Olas didn’t make it because it “can’t compete with the Graves site,” a hotel and tower project that also bears his name in Fort Lauderdale, designed by architect Michael Graves. “Frankly, it’s a better site…It’s a more impressive building,” Mr. Trump says.

Mr. Trump’s delayed condo-hotel project in Toronto fell behind a competing Ritz-Carlton, and the building now going up has 13 stories fewer than originally planned. However, Mr. Trump says the project is in good shape.

In Chicago, Trump Tower Chicago is on schedule and will be the second tallest building in Chicago (after the Sears Tower).

The hotel portion of the building is set to open early next year. I’ve seen ads on Craigslist looking for pastry chefs and hotel concierges. But sales have slowed in the building, leaving it, according to the Wall Street Journal, only 70% sold.

The Donald also claims he’s had 4500 people interested in his 450 units at his tower in SoHo, but as I talked about last March, the locals were already protesting that building and Trump has not yet even opened a sales center.

Did the Phoenix tower ever begin? He had trouble with that building as well.

The Donald denies in the article that housing sales have slowed in any of these markets. There is always some other reason that things aren’t selling well or the building is not being built. It’s never about The Donald. In Atlanta, he’s about to begin marketing two downtown highrises at a time when inventory is skyrocketing in the city:

Mr. Trump says Atlanta is “a beautiful job going well.” Asked about Atlanta’s poor housing market, Mr. Trump said, “You know I can’t be everywhere. It’s like somebody says, ‘why didn’t you build here or there?’ Who’s done better deals than me?”

The Donald jumped into the condo market with both feet. It was easy for him - since he was simply licensing out his name on most of these projects. But, as I’ve said, his name will become linked with the condo bust. Where he built towers, there was a bubble. And the bust will come (if it’s not already happening.)

Warning, Atlanta. Maybe you should hope that the Donald never builds those towers downtown.