Has Housing Hit Bottom? Not Even Close

How do I know that the housing market hasn’t bottomed out yet?

The real estate cheerleaders are starting to be pessimistic. A few months ago the “experts” were all saying that we were at a bottom and that things would pick up by the end of 2008.

Now- they’ve changed their tune. What they’re saying is that things won’t recover until “spring 2009.”

That’s a long 9 months away.

Pending home sales numbers for May were released earlier this week. Usually, the National Association of Realtor’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, is a huge cheerleader, especially if the number is better than expected. But this time, he sounded more cautious:

“The overall decline in contract signings suggests we are not out of the woods by any means,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

And the always bubbly Barbara Corcoran, who started the famous Corcoran Group real estate brokerage in Manhattan several decades ago, sold it for millions, and is now a talking head on the Today Show, CNBC and other venues, is sounding less enthusiastic that now is the “time to buy.”

Check out a video interview with her on Tech Ticker where she says that things have “changed” from prior eras.

The current housing downturn isn’t over and is “much much worse” than past downturns, says Barbara Corcoran, who built The Corcoran Group into a multi-billion firm during the real estate busts of the mid-1970s, 1980s and early 1990s.

This downturn is “grossly different” than those past cycles because homeowners are much more willing to “walk away” from homes, says Corcoran, who sold her namesake firm in 2001 for a reported $66 million and is now an author and widely cited real estate guru.

If people are willing to run away from their mortgages- when do we reach a bottom?

The bottom doesn’t appear in sight. First, housing has to stop going down. We haven’t gotten there yet.

Until then, hang on for the ride.

And for those who will be in the market to buy soon- there will be some incredible opportunities coming your way.