The Donald Indicator

Donald Trump is good for more than just a tv show. He’s an indicator of where the housing bubble took off and where the bust will hit hardest.

We’ll call it “The Donald Indicator”.

Wherever he is building a Trump Tower or a Trump “fill in the blank”- that market is going to bust.

First sign of trouble: Trump Tower Tampa. Granted, he’s only loaned his name out on that one (he’s not actually building it) but it still qualifies for the Indicator (it’s all about the Brand, as I’ve said.) It sounds like it could be one of the first of the Donald’s buildings to not get built. From the St. Petersburg Times:

Joe Shultz and Louis Ricci tried to disregard Trump Tower Tampa’s growing distress: the broken financing deals, the unpaid contractors and the slippery completion dates.

They will disregard them no longer. Partners on a $1.48-million condo, Shultz and Ricci have become the first Trump Tower buyers to sue to get their deposit back.

The pair from Santa Rosa Beach in the Florida Panhandle allege local developer SimDag LLC breached a sales contract by failing to build their 38th-story luxury condo on time.

They also blame Donald Trump, suggesting the New York tycoon misstated his relationship to the project. Trump said at the time he had a “substantial stake” in the $300-million tower when, in fact, his exposure is limited to a licensing deal with SimDag.

What’s the real story? The developers are still acting like it will move forward but it doesn’t sound positive:

For their part, Trump Tower’s partners are still optimistic. Short of cash and behind schedule, SimDag sold a controlling stake in the fall to Orlando private equity firm Mirabilis Ventures Inc.

Last week, Mirabilis revealed it had laid off employees and closed offices in Orlando, but executives have not returned calls for further comment.

New Orleans is apparently going to get a 70 story Trump Tower (also where he is simply lending his name.) While New Orleans obviously needs development, a condo tower with $600 to $750 per square foot price points? From the Times-Picayune:

Although some New Orleanians still express skepticism that it will happen, especially in the wake of Hurricane Katrina’s body blow to the city’s economy, one of the lead developers of the proposed 70-story Trump International Hotel & Tower on Poydras Street promised last week that the project is going to become reality.

With New Orleans City Planning Commission approval in hand, Florida developer Cliff Mowe said, “we don’t see anything at this point” that could derail the construction of what would be Louisiana’s tallest building.

The City Council still needs to approve the plans, but that is considered almost certain. With no opposition to the project having surfaced, Mowe said, council approval “should be pretty smooth.”

He wants to build in SoHo soon. Uh-oh. New York’s housing market, which has been among the strongest in the country, looks to tank next. From the New York Daily News:

Donald Trump’s latest project is a “45-story square peg in a round hole” that violates zoning laws and doesn’t belong in low-rise SoHo, protesters charged yesterday.

About 50 picketers gathered next to the planned site of Trump SoHo condominium-hotel at the corner of Spring and Varick Sts. to urge the city not to issue The Donald a building permit.

Thousands of units are being built in Las Vegas. Of course, a Trump Tower is among them. From the Las Vegas Business Press:

The Strip corridor saw the majority of building activity, with 4,795 units going up, including: 1,282-unit Trump Tower; 405-unit Sky Las Vegas, 428-unit Allure Las Vegas; 2,706-unit Project CityCenter; and 636-unit Turnberry Towers, among others. Another 2,332 units were under construction off-Strip and 784 units were underway in downtown.

Then there is Trump Tower Chicago, which is The Donald’s crown jewel right now. He is actually building all 92 stories of that building. It is 75% sold and will start accepting occupancies as soon as next year apparently. It’s actually, quite an attractive building.

Which means, for Chicago, the housing market is doomed.

Sorry Chicago.

But you’re not alone. In fact, outside of Peoria, I don’t think there is really a city that the Donald is NOT building in at the moment (okay, we can think of a few- San Francisco being one of them.) He is building in Dubai, a 65 story tower in Panama City, a 1000 unit building in Toronto, several in south Florida (Miami, Ft. Lauderdale etc.), one in Phoenix and supposedly even several towers outside of the Old City of Cartagena, Columbia (but maybe those are just rumors). You know- the place where there are still rebels fighting each other in the jungle.

It seems, then, that few areas will be safe from the housing bust. The Donald seems to be everywhere.