Potash Corporation (POT) has seen its share price triple in 2007. The stock is near a record high. Founded in Canada in 1953, they make…fertilizers.

Fertlizers and anything agriculture are hot, hot, hot.

But is the stock? There is a healthy debate on the Yahoo Message Boards about whether or not you should be buying it at these levels. Said one poster:

POT is a leader in a hot sector - Agriculture/Fertilizers. The market still expects further price increases in potash, so EPS will move up, and over the next few years POT will be increasing output by 50%. EPS for 2009 may be $8 to $9, but p/e could return to 15-18 or even lower once the market thinks that the commodity price has peaked.

Everyone talks about the increasing population and changing diets as the cause for increasing Potash demand. The only reason for the present tight supply of fertilizers is biofuels. If ethanol use as fuel was discontined, POT’s stock price would fall by 75%.

The U.S. government is beginning to realize the potential impact of biofuels on food inflation, and there will be increased ethanol production from sources other than corn. Also, if oil falls to $60 - $70 as I think it will, that may reduce the demand for ethanol as a fuel, which would pressure fertilizer stocks.

With the exuberance in Google’s stock seeming to have peaked (for now), maybe it’s a contrarian play to stay away from agricultural commodities and buy some of the Tech Titans?

A good question to ask: do you even know what potash is? If not- think before you leap into buying the stock.

First Solar (FSLR), one of the solar power stocks, has had an incredible run over the last year. It is currently trading at a skyhigh P/E of 195 times earnings. In 2004 and 2005 the company traded with a negative ROE. In 2006, it was a paltry 0.9.

Can anyone say “gambling” when talking about this stock?

Some posters on the Yahoo Message Boards are beginning to liken the solar stocks to the dot-coms of the late 1990s:

Boy this message board sounds like an internet stock in 2000

How many solar companies are out there doubling? 40

First Solar competitor SolarFun Power Holdings (SOLF) is up another 6.50% after signing a $230 million contract with a Korean company to sell them wafers. It is trading with a P/E of 113.

There are hundreds of posts on the Yahoo Message Boards a day about these stocks.

Compare the solar stocks with a stock like Apache, one of the energy plays. Apache hit new all-time highs today and its shares were up 63% last year. It is still trading at 16 times earnings. They are an exploration company so their revenue will go up if crude prices stay high. The last post about Apache on the Yahoo Message Boards was December 30, 2007- or 4 days ago.

Irrational exuberance in the solar power stocks?

You be the judge.

Starbucks shareholders are feeling the pain in the last year. After riding the stock higher since 2001, the stock finished 2007 down 42.17%. The new year hasn’t started any better. The stock is down nearly 10% in two sessions and has hit a low last seen in 2004.

Is it a “buy” at these levels? Many on the chatrooms, such as this poster, seem to think so and are looking at the global growth story:

But let’s just assume, for argument’s sake, that the company will suffer from far slower growth in the US, not to mention all the other crap about milk prices, and competition from places where I personally would NEVER go to get a coffee (I might get my glazed donut from dunkin donuts etc, but the coffee? No way.) OK, so assuming you’re all right about the US plummeting…how about China, and Europe and everywhere else ??

Growth prospects are unbelievable when you consider that Starbucks only accounts for 1% of coffee consumption in the rest of the world (source:Morningstar). And, again from Morningstar, they only have 7% of the domestic market, so SBUX certainly has room for more gorwth in the US. But, we’re talking about the global side of the equation, so lets leave the US out of it.

Others aren’t so sure we’ve hit the bottom. Many posters still think the stock is overvalued based on current growth projections:

Brand loyalty can’t compensate for poor management, a strapped consumer, and emminent recession taking the consumer out of the mix, imo.

I’ve been riding this stock down from upper 30’s and haven’t covered yet. When the stock price gets to single digits, I’ll cover.

Starbucks is now trading with a current P/E around 21 and a forward P/E of only 15. In the last 10 years, Starbucks has never traded with a P/E under 30. Granted, their growth has slowed in recent years. But they are still projecting around a 20% year over year growth rate.

Starbucks stock is simply out of favor and investors are fleeing in droves for no reason. Paging Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway: Value, value, value!

MasterCard recently hit another new all-time high. The stock has been on fire since its IPO. Its 52 week low is $90. It is trading at $217 and hit as high as $227 a share.

On the Yahoo Message Board the posters are gushing about what a great stock it is. But this comment, from gpeasejem, caught my eye:

I can’t believe we hit 227 today and closed at another all time high. As KBW said in their upgrade today. MA is recession proof because of it’s 50 percent exposure to Europe.

Can a company really be “recession proof”? MasterCard processes credit card transactions. If you have a slowdown in America, that doesn’t mean you will have a slowdown in other countries. Or does it?

Or is MasterCard the perfect business- meaning that their profits can never slow as long as everyone in the world is using plastic?

Something to ponder. In a world with no cash, who is getting rich?